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Toss & Tally — App Documentation

A cribbage training tool built around one idea: don't just tell the user what to do, show the math and explain the reasoning — for both discarding and pegging, for correct plays as much as mistakes, and for the strategy layered on top of the pure math.

Tabs are two levels. Five at the top: Intro; Drills, which groups Discarding, Pegging, Full Hand (both combined) and Challenges (the timed drills); Games (play a full hand-by-hand game to 121 — heads-up or interactive 3-/4-handed); Reference, which groups Theory (pace/score context — the Twenty-Six Theory material), Tables (crib matrix, master discard tables, card frequency), Glossary, Play Log (real-game tracking, including saved games with per-hand records) and this Guide; and Settings, which holds the app-wide options.

Selecting a group opens its first entry — Drills opens Discarding, Reference opens Theory.

The Guide and the version history used to be links in the header beside the version tag. Both now live under Reference, and the version tag is plain text. The version history is shown in dev mode only: it is a generated page that the mobile build does not ship, so offering it everywhere would advertise something one platform cannot reach.

New to cribbage? Read section 1 — the rules first. It is a plain reference with no strategy in it. Then come back to section 2 for what each tab of the trainer does. Every term the app uses is defined in the Glossary at the end, and those entries are exactly what the app's own in-panel "read more" links open.

Already play? Go straight to section 2 for the tabs, or section 3 for the strategy the app teaches and the evidence behind it.

Printing this Guide. Use the Print / Save as PDF button in the banner at the top, or your browser's print command, and choose Save as PDF if you want a file. The banner stays put as you scroll, so the button is always within reach. If you opened this guide from the game, a Close and return to the game button sits beside it, and it puts you back in the hand you left — your game is still running in the tab behind this one, so nothing is lost and nothing restarts. It prints on US Letter at a 1 inch margin all round, with a running header ("Toss & Tally — Guide" and the version) and a running footer carrying the site and "Page N of M" on every page. Everything prints whether or not you have it open on screen: collapsed sections are expanded automatically and an active search is cleared first, so you never get a partial document. The banner, the contents sidebar, the search box and the buttons are all left off the printout.

You do not need to change anything in the print dialog — leave Headers and footers switched off. The page builds its own numbered sheets rather than relying on the browser, so the margin, the header, the footer and the numbering are the same whatever your dialog is set to, including Margins: None. Turning the browser's own headers on simply stamps a second set of numbers, plus the title, URL and date, on top of these.

What's new. The per-version changelog lives in version-history.html, reachable from Reference → Version history in dev mode. It is generated from the update logs, so it is always current. It is deliberately not repeated here: this Guide describes the app as it stands today, not how it got here.

Every section sits under an uppercase title (like "Play log"); the Settings section is collapsible (open by default); and the "You are" dealer status is shaded green (dealer) / amber (non-dealer) as a board-awareness cue, echoed on the deal badges.

A small version tag sits above the title. It reads the current version at runtime from version-history.html but is plain text — it is no longer a link, and neither the changelog nor this Guide is reached from the header any more. Both live under Reference: the Guide entry opens this page (which links back to the app), and Version history appears there in dev mode only.

This doc has six parts: 1 the cribbage rules (reference, not strategy), 2 how to use the trainer tab by tab, 3 the strategy and theory the app teaches and why, 4 the sources behind the numbers, 5 what genuinely differentiates this from a typical cribbage app, and 6 a glossary. Build and validation history is tracked in the repo's backlog.md and the per-version update-vN.md logs.

1 · Cribbage rules (reference)

This section is deliberately kept out of the live guidance panels — game rules and strategic advice are different things, and mixing them into in-the-moment tips makes both harder to scan. This is the rules reference; strategy is section 3.

Card values. Ace counts 1, cards 2 through 10 count their face value, and Jack, Queen and King each count 10 — collectively "ten-cards". Suit matters only for flushes and for nobs. These are the values you add up during the play to reach 15 and 31; they are not the same thing as the points a card is worth at the show.

The deck and deal. Standard 52-card deck, no jokers. In the two-player game — the one these rules describe, and the one the strategy in section 3 assumes — each player is dealt 6 cards. Each player then discards 2 face-down to a shared crib: a third hand, over and above the two players' own, that belongs to the dealer. That leaves 4 cards each to play and to score with.

The app also plays 3- and 4-handed games and several variants. Those change only the deal and the crib — how many cards each seat gets, how many go to the crib, and who owns it — and are described under "Game" in section 2. Everything below (the cut, the play, the show) works the same way in every variant.

The cut / starter. After discarding, the non-dealer cuts the remaining deck; the top card of the bottom half becomes the starter and is turned face-up. If the starter is a Jack, the dealer immediately scores 2 points — "two for his heels." (Whether this can complete a win outright is a house-rule variation; see below.)

The play (pegging). Starting with non-dealer, players alternate playing one card face-up, announcing the running total (the count).

The show (scoring hands). Each player's kept 4 cards are scored with the starter added as a 5th card, non-dealer first, then dealer, then the crib (counted as the dealer's own, using the starter as normal): 15s (2 each), pairs, runs, a 4-card flush (all one suit, 4 points; 5 if the starter matches too — a crib flush needs the starter to match, no 4-point option), and nobs (1 point for holding the Jack matching the starter's suit).

Winning. First to 121 points wins, whether reached during play or the show. Under the ACC tournament convention (verified against the ACC Policy Manual, Ch. 6, and modeled in the Game): a win is worth 2 game points, a skunk is worth 3, and a loss is 0.

The board's four streets, and the three skunks. A 121-hole board is laid out in four "streets" of 30 holes, and the skunk tiers are simply which street the loser failed to leave:

StreetHolesFailing to cross it meansLoser's score
First1–30triple skunk≤ 30
Second31–60double skunk≤ 60
Third61–90skunk≤ 90
Fourth91–120safe — you are over the skunk line≥ 91

Hole 91 is the skunk line: reach it and you cannot be skunked. Hole 90 is sometimes called the stink hole for sitting one point short of safety, though that name is more often given to hole 120 — losing 121–120 by a single point.

What a game is worth is a settingMatch scoring, in the Settings tab. It governs every game point the Game awards, the Match Log records and a best-of-N series totals. Two rulesets:

RulesetWinSkunk (≤ 90)Double (≤ 60)Triple (≤ 30)
ACC tournamentthe default233 (no extra)3 (no extra)
Standard free play1244 (no extra)

ACC is the default, and it is why a double or triple skunk is labeled but still scored as 3: ACC recognizes win 2 / skunk 3 / loss 0 and no tier beyond the first. That is deliberate, not a missing feature. Standard free play scores an ordinary win lower and does escalate the wider margins.

Two things the app does not model, whichever you pick: under ACC, bracketed playoff matches are played straight up (a skunk counts as a single win, not 3), and some free-play house rules end a match outright on a triple skunk. The app always plays a best-of-N series to its full length — read the label and apply those yourself if you play that way.

The Pegging drill instead treats each round independently, starting from a generated Situation Score rather than a carried-over total.

Common house-rule variation modeled in this app: many casual and tournament rulesets don't allow "two for his heels" to complete a win by itself — the app caps the heels bonus so it can't push a score to or past 121 on the cut alone.

Penalties & tournament conduct (reference). Sourced to the ACC Official Cribbage Tournament Rules, 2025 (cribbage.org/rules/ — the current edition; there is no 2026). Most of these are human-play conduct rules with nothing for an auto-scoring trainer to enforce; they're listed here for completeness, marked by whether the app models them.

Impossible scores. A single 4-card-plus-starter hand can never total 19, 25, 26, or 27 — these are the classic "impossible" counts (a "19" is the common byword for a zero hand). Likewise there is no flush in a 24-point hand. The maximum is 29 (5-5-5-J with the matching-suit Jack cut).

2 · How to play / how to use the trainer

Discarding

Deals a random 6-card hand. Pick 2 to discard, then submit.

Pegging

One continuous flow per hand — deal, then pre-play analysis, then live play, then post-play analysis — not separate modes to switch between.

Setup (persistent settings, like a dealer-mode preference):

Pre-play analysis, shown before you touch a card:

Live play:

Post-play analysis, once the hand ends:

Full hand (1+2)

The Discarding flow plus pegging trap notes and lead guidance for the specific hand kept — one continuous decision instead of two separate skills. No live board score exists in this tab (it's evaluated before any game starts), so the lead suggestion here always runs in neutral mode — see "Offense / Defense mode (the Street coach)" below.

Game

A real playable game, hand by hand, first to 121 against the app's opponent model (see "How the opponent plays" below). Each hand runs the full cycle — deal, discard 2 to the crib, cut, peg, then an auto-counted show (non-dealer hand, dealer hand, crib, in proper order) — and the dealer alternates each hand. The optional game clock times the whole game against the ~15-minute ACC pace benchmark, and the decision clock times individual decisions; each has independent Show and Record options. A finished game can be saved to the Match Log as a game record with per-hand detail.

3-handed variants (v14). With Players = 3, a variant selector chooses how the hand is dealt (Standard is the default, so nothing changes unless you pick another):

In Captain's, the two AI partners now also coordinate what they throw away (v15.3). Both of them toss into the same crib and it is always the lone player's, so choosing those two cards together — rather than each deciding alone — stops them accidentally handing over a strong crib between them. It applies only when the computer plays both partner seats; if you are a partner, each seat decides on its own. Worth about a third of a point a game to the partnership.

Both no-seed "Strategic Crib" variants use the same pegging and counting as the standard game — only the deal changes. In partnered games (Captain's and 4-handed 2-v-2) the AI partners now coordinate on defense — they favor safe, blocking cards when an opponent is ahead of pace or within peg-out range, rather than each pegging purely for its own score. (This is a defensive bias; against a lone Captain's structural edge it sharpens the partners' play without fully evening the odds.)

The peg board. Below the scores, a visual cribbage board shows a 0–121 track for each player (or, in 3-/4-handed, one track per seat / per partnership). On each track a filled bar and a peg mark the running score, and the number is shown both in the left gutter and floating at the peg. Three dashed vertical lines mark the street boundaries — the skunk line at 91, the double-skunk line at 61 and the triple-skunk line at 31 (a trailer left short of one of these when the winner hits 121 is skunked, double- or triple-skunked accordingly); the solid line at 121 is the finish. A small green diamond in the right margin, past the 121 line, marks the dealer for the current hand — it sits on the dealing player's (or dealing partnership's) row and moves to the next row as the deal rotates. An optional par-hole ladder (Settings → "Par holes on the board") overlays the Theory-of-26 milestones for pacing. The peg glides to its new hole as you score rather than jumping.

Board options (Settings). Show the cribbage board turns the whole board on or off (Game, multi game, and Pegging drill); with it off, the par-holes option is disabled. Board style chooses between the compact Bar (the default linear track, with the par / skunk milestones) and a realistic Holes (121) board — 121 holes snaking in streets of five, one lane per player or team, your current score marked as the front peg. The par overlay isn't drawn on the holes board.

Theory

Twenty-Six Theory pacing — this content sat under a confusing "Game" heading before the playable Games tab existed. Enter who dealt first, the deal number, and both scores; get a live comparison against Colvert's par-hole table with a plain-language read on leaning offensive or defensive given the actual gap.

Reference

The lookup shelf, three things in one tab:

Drills

Three focused practice modes, picked with the buttons at the top of the tab:

Match Log

Persistent record of real games at the table, separate from in-app practice stats: live point-by-point scoring during a real game or log one after the fact, per-opponent win/loss and average margin, inline edit/ delete, survives across sessions via artifact storage.

Printing a record. Tick the entries you want and use Print selected. It prints the same way the Guide does: US Letter at a 1 inch margin, a running header, and a running footer carrying "Page N of M" — so a multi-game record stays in order once it is on paper. As with the Guide, leave your print dialog's Headers and footers option off; the margin here comes from the page itself, so a dialog set to Margins: None cannot strip it.

Settings

The app-wide options, set once here instead of being repeated on every tab. A tab may override a default locally, but this is where the defaults live.

How the opponent plays

One baseline model with two documented departures, stated plainly so you know what you are practicing against. The baseline holds in the Pegging drill, the Full-hand and pegging-potential simulations, and the heads-up Games tab:

The two departures, both deliberate and both described where they apply:

The Expert skill tier adds one piece of board awareness — it plays off defensively when it's ahead (it won't hand you a pair when protecting a lead, except to match the cut), so pair-baits land less often against Expert than against the greedy Experienced/Average tiers. But no tier is a fully adaptive opponent: none of them adjust to your tendencies over a session. That makes the opponent a consistent, repeatable training baseline (see the opponent-skill note under "Not currently modeled" in section 3).

What no tier does — bluffing and lead-reading. The opponent plays a value-and-defense model, never a deceptive one. It won't lead a King (or any card) as a bluff — a deliberately weak-looking lead meant to induce a scoring reply it can then punish — and it never reads meaning into your leads to set a counter-trap. Both are real advanced-human tools; against this opponent a bluff lead is just a weak lead, and your own leads are safe from being "read." Practice them knowing the trainer won't fight back in kind.

Situation Score

The You / Opp numbers above a Pegging-drill hand are the Situation Score: a randomly generated but plausible mid-game board position, as if dealer and pone had each pegged and counted their way partway up the board. It is not a running tally of your drill hands — each new deal gets a new situation. The point is context: the right pegging play changes with the board. Behind, you play on (offense — chase points, weight Winners); ahead, you play off (defense — protect the lead, weight Losers). See "Offense / Defense mode (the Street coach)" in section 3 for how the app reads the board.

Counting-speed trainer

A timed hand-scoring drill — count a hand's 15s, runs, pairs, flush, and nobs against the clock. It ships as the Counting speed drill in the Challenges tab and runs in two modes: race (type the final total) and guided (step through the hand category by category). See "Drills" above.

3 · Cribbage strategy & theory

Everything below is either exact computation (labeled as such) or a named, sourced heuristic — never presented as if all of it carries equal certainty.

Discard strategy

The core tension: cards that score well in your own hand aren't always safe to keep vs. what's left over feeding the crib, and whether that crib is yours (dealer) or your opponent's (pone) flips the incentive. This app resolves that by exact hand-EV computation plus crib-EV estimation, not a static "always keep this, discard that" chart — see the Discarding tab notes above, and the Tables tab for the full exact reference table.

"Intrinsic points" — why this app is already ahead. A common manual adjustment taught for comparing discards is to subtract the points a held pair or Jack would score in your hand anyway, so you don't double-count them when weighing the crib. That correction only exists because people rank crib tables in isolation. Toss & Tally never needs it: it ranks every discard on total EV (hand ± crib together), so a card's in-hand value and its crib value are already combined once, not twice. The manual "intrinsic points" step is a workaround for a problem the exact-EV model doesn't have.

Pegging strategy

Several distinct layers, each sourced separately:

Leading & responding — the masters and the data

Your lead depends on your objective. For the same hand, the best lead changes with what you need. From 6-7-8-9 (a very common pone hand), Cribbage Pro's data across tens of thousands of games says: lead the 8 for the most net points; lead the 7 on a "Hail Mary" when you need a big count (the only lead that ever pegs 11); lead the 6 when you need exactly one point. When the dealer plays a 7 on your 8, play the 9 for the run of three — the dealer completes a run of four only 42% of the time.

Trap with low cards when you can. From 4-5-6-6, lead the 6 — the "non-dealer 5-trap": 6, your other 6, then the 4 (run of three + 31), then the 5 (15). Against a dealer holding only ten-cards and 5s (~9% of hands) you peg about 7 to their 1. Don't lead the 4 from this hand (no edge either way), and never lead the lone 5.

Leading ten-cards (10 / J / Q / K). The masters disagree, and the disagreement teaches the trade-off. Colvert and Barlow lead the King — the ten-card the dealer is least likely to hold, so it's hardest to pair, and it keeps your J-Q connected for a later trap. Rasmussen and Schell lead the Jack — dealers throw Jacks to their own crib, so they rarely hold one, and a sharp dealer expects the "safe" King and may bluff-pair it. Two rules both camps share: from 10-10-J-Q, never play a 10 then a Queen (the gap reveals you hold the missing Jack — play the Jack first); and to invite a pair on offense, lead from the end of a run (from 9-10-J-Q, lead the 9).

Should you pair the opponent's lead? Pairing banks a sure 2 — but if they hold a third of that rank they answer with pair-royal for 6. Cribbage Pro's data gives the odds a random opponent holds that third: below one-in-three for a lead of 3, 4, or 8 (worth pairing), but high for aces (~50%) and 5s (~45%) (leave those). Any lead matching the cut is safe to pair. Skilled opponents lead from a pair more, so be warier pairing a good player's 5, 9, or Jack. (The Pegging and Games tabs surface this live as a "Pair the X?" read.)

Position overrides the odds. Chambers and Colvert are absolute here: when you're ahead on the board and playing defensively, never pair a lead — a pair-royal retaliation "may well be fatal" to a lead you should be protecting. Pairing courts variance, which is an offensive weapon — save it for when you're behind and need the swing. Barlow pushes the other way for the trailer: a net loss of 4 on a triple exchange "is not a disaster," and some pairs carry their own insurance — pair a 2 while holding a 9 and, if they trip it, your 9 makes fifteen-two to cut the loss to 2.

Pairing vs. the fifteen. Given a choice between pairing and bringing the count to 15, prefer the 15 — it scores the same 2 but changes the rank on the board, denying the immediate triple. The exception is defensive: off an 8, don't play a 7 for 15 while protecting a lead — it opens a run to a 6 or 9; "play off" and choke the sequence instead. (v12: the Expert opponent now plays all of this — it pairs 3/4/8, refuses 9/J and 5s, takes a cut-matching pair, never pairs while ahead, and prefers a 15 to a pair.)

Responding as dealer (net-pegging data): holding 5-10-J-K and the opponent leads a King, play the 5 — don't pair (+2.2 net; nearly half of players pair and lose ground); holding 4-5-6-J and they lead a 6, play the Jack (+2.4); holding 7-8-9-9 and they lead a 3, play the 9. Small edges compound — an extra two points a game is worth roughly +3.5% on your win rate.

Not yet computed live, per hand — the Guide teaches the principles above; these are the automatic per-hand recommendations still to come:

Twenty-Six Theory (game pacing)

Colvert's finding that the dealer's "free" crib means the initial non-dealer is structurally behind pace for the whole game. A dealer averages ~16 points a hand and a pone ~10, so each player expects 26 points per full round — one hand as dealer plus one as pone, 16 + 10. (It is 26 each across the round, not 26 shared between the two of you.) That yields a single unified par-hole ladder — absolute board positions you want to be at at the start of a turn: 17 · 43 · 69 · 95 as the dealer, 7 · 33 · 59 · 85 · 111 as the pone, each rung 26 apart. Extend either ladder one rung backward and you get the ideal starting position: −9 for the dealer (17 − 26) and +7 for the pone. The 16-point gap between those two is exactly the dealer's per-hand edge. v11.6 — the margin method (per r/Cribbage / mastahX420, cleaner than a fixed per-hand schedule because it survives leap-frogging 26 ahead): each turn, compare your distance from your nearest role par hole vs. the opponent's distance from theirs, and let the closer player's point win — you closer → play on, opponent closer → play off. There are really two board-position questions: margin from par governs "trading points" (whether to pair / make 15 / complete a run — known exchanges), while how far ahead or behind overall governs "taking risks" (gambling a good card into the crib, counting on the cut). Both the Theory tab and the Pegging/Game Street coach read from this one ladder.

The dealer advantage, in numbers. The positional edge is large and well-measured: from large-sample human play (Fuller Systems), the dealer wins ≈ 55.5% of games, and having the first deal is worth ≈ +11% wins — a gap that holds up consistently across skill tiers. That's the concrete reason the deal and the crib matter so much, and why the initial non-dealer has to play catch-up all game.

Skunk avoidance and skunk pursuit

Once a game is lopsided, the skunk lines change what "playing well" means for both players — and they do it before the game is decided, which is what makes them a strategy topic rather than a scoring footnote. The lines sit at 31 · 61 · 91 (see the streets table in section 1).

Trailing badly — play for the line, not the win. If the opponent is close to pegging out and you cannot realistically catch them, the goal stops being the game and becomes the nearest line above you. A skunk costs a game point under ACC (3 against 2) and considerably more in casual or stakes play, so points that are worthless for winning are still worth having. That inverts your normal discarding: keep high-variance hands that might produce a big count rather than safe ones that reliably produce a small one, and peg aggressively, because a card that risks giving up 2 is cheap when the alternative is finishing three holes short.

Leading heavily — the line is worth playing for. With a large lead, check whether the opponent can be trapped behind a line before you peg out. Sacrificing a point or two of hand value can be correct if it leaves you safer pegging cards and denies them the run of points they need to cross. Be honest about the trade, though: under ACC the double and triple tiers pay nothing extra, so pursuing them is worth real risk only under a ruleset that scores them, or for the satisfaction. Chasing a double skunk and losing the ordinary skunk is a bad trade.

Where the app helps. The board draws all three lines, so you can see which one is live. The Street coach's on/off read is driven by par-hole pace rather than by skunk lines, so treat it as advice about the game — when you are playing for a line instead, you are deliberately overriding it.

4 · Sources

Cribbage is an old game and its facts belong to everybody — the rules, the odds, the point values. What follows is the other part: whose work this app leans on, what of theirs is here, and how it reached us. The third column is the one worth reading. There is a real difference between a book we opened, a page we read online, and a bulk scrape we mined for ideas, and collapsing all three into the word "sourced" would flatter the weakest of them.

Where a source's exact page or URL was not recorded at the time, this says so rather than inventing a citation that looks checkable and is not.

SourceWhat of theirs is hereHow it reached usConfidence
ACC Official Cribbage Tournament Rules, 2025, and the ACC Policy Manual, Ch. 6Tournament scoring (win 2 / skunk 3, skunk = loser ≤ 90), muggins (Rule 10), the penalty reference in section 1, counting order, and the 4-card crib flush scoring 0Read directly from the rulebook itself — ACC rules index, which links the 2025 rulebook PDF (effective 1 August 2025). The bare cribbage.org/rules/ path cited in earlier versions is a 404Verified against the rules document
DeLynn Colvert, Play Winning Cribbage, 4th editionThe named trap patterns, the losers/winners percentage-play framework (this app's Losers and Winners counts), Twenty-Six Theory and the par ladderTips 1 and 8 typed from the physical book. Most other Colvert content came from "Articles by DeLynn Colvert" (Tips 1–16) republished on cribbage.org — a curated excerpt, not the full textMixed — see the note below
Craig HesselOne of the three published discard tables the app's Realistic model is calibrated againstRead from Schell's published comparison of the three, not from Hessel directly. Held for calibration; no longer reproduced in the app (removed 2026-09-03)Cited, not reproduced
Bruce BowmanA second of the three calibration tablesThe same comparison. This table is also reprinted in Colvert's book, so the copy we held passed through a copyrighted work — one of the reasons it is no longer shippedCited, not reproduced
George "Ras" RasmussenThe third calibration table (86,755 over-the-board expert dealer discards, 1990–1998), the empirical pone and balk targets the opponent model is fitted to, and the term "double-moan"The same comparison. Eight years of hand-collected play — not something anyone can recompute, and the single strongest reason the tables are cited rather than republishedCited, not reproduced
Michael SchellCompiler of the three tables above; the Jack-trap note; the card-frequency hold rates in Reference → TablesHis published comparison blends Hessel and Bowman (computer-derived) with Rasmussen (empirical, weighted by sample size). The Jack-trap note reached us through secondary strategy references, not from Schell directlyTranscribed; the Jack-trap note is secondhand
Dan BarlowQuoted directly in section 3 on triple-exchange risk for the trailer; endgame two-on-one and pegging-psychology materialRead in the ACC tip libraries, not in his booksSecondhand
John ChambersThe board-position "Street" framing the app uses, and a direct quotation in section 3 on never pairing a lead when aheadRead in the ACC tip librariesSecondhand
The ACC tip libraries (Barlow, Chambers, Colvert, Rasmussen, Schell — roughly 73 tips)Feature selection: several of the app's coaching layers were chosen by reading what these five teach and asking what the app did not yet coverA bulk PDF scrape of the libraries, mined for ideas rather than for textParaphrase from a scrape — treat as influenced by, not quoted
Fuller Systems (Cribbage Pro blog)Dealer-advantage figures (≈ 55.5% dealer win rate; first deal ≈ +11% wins), the pair-trap odds behind the pegging read, and the "intrinsic points" adjustment in section 3Their published blog dataAs published
CribbageCorner.com, basic strategy pagesThe "don't lead a 5 or a 10-card" principle, which the app turned into an exact probability calculation rather than a flat ruleRead on the site; the specific page was not recordedAs published
Reddit r/cribbage, "Any thoughts and tips about using baiting as a strategy during pegging?"Corroboration only for the pair-bait model — including a commenter's excerpt of a Solitaired.com guide, and another's caution that baiting carries real riskA public thread. Note the chain: our text → the thread → an excerpt of Solitaired. Neither was recorded as a URLCorroborating, non-primary
Cornell University probability problem setValidation of the scoring engine and the discard-EV matrixpi.math.cornell.eduUsed as a check, not as a source of content
Vashon/Wennstrom Cribbage Club (RAS class materials)Secondary cross-check of some Colvert contentClass materialsCross-check only
This app's own simulations and enumerationsThe crib-value matrix, the opponent model's fitted weights, the win-proximity threshold, the lead-risk probabilities and the pegging-potential figuresComputed here and documented rather than guessed: a 20,000-round simulation of the app's own pegging logic (average 2.5 pts per player per round, 95th percentile 6, 99th percentile 9); hypergeometric lead-risk calculations for 5s, ten-cards and same-rank pairs; a 200-trial pegging-potential simulation using real opponent deal-and-discard rather than random drawsMeasured here

On the Colvert attribution, because it has already gone wrong once. An earlier version of this app credited a sleeper-card idea to Tip 1 without anyone having read Tip 1 — the online excerpt carries tip titles in its navigation, not the full text. That attribution shipped across five releases before the physical book was consulted and it turned out to say something different. Tips 1 and 8 are now typed from the book, and the losers-counting logic was checked against one of the book's own worked examples and produces the same number. The lesson is built into how this section is now laid out: what we have actually read is stated separately from what we have only heard.

On the master tables — changed 2026-09-03. These three tables were reproduced in full in Reference → Tables. They no longer are. The app now shows an Agreement view instead: how closely its own Realistic model matches the published consensus, discard by discard, in bands rather than values — RMS 0.228 across all 91 discards, largest single difference 0.469, none over half a point.

The calibration claim is unaffected, and is arguably better made: "our model agrees with the three published masters to within a quarter of a point on average, and here is where it differs" shows the calibration doing work, where five side-by-side tables invited you to check it by eye.

A per-cell exact deviation was deliberately not used, because it is invertible — publishing our value and the difference lets anyone reconstruct theirs exactly, which would have republished all three under a thinner disguise. The bands bound the difference without yielding the value.

The authors are still credited on that screen, by name and method. Removing the values is not removing the people: their work remains the benchmark this model was fitted against.

General web references were used as cross-checks during development. Where they disagreed with each other or with exact computation, the computation won; several such disagreements were found and none of them were carried into the app.

Where the app itself says this. Credit is not left to this page alone. The About panel on the Intro tab names the major sources; Reference → Tables carries a byline under the master grids naming their three authors and the compiler; the card-frequency table and the Glossary say where their material came from. Each links back here.

Credits — whose work is in this app

The short version, for anyone who wants the names without the table: DeLynn Colvert · Craig Hessel · Bruce Bowman · George "Ras" Rasmussen · Michael Schell · Dan Barlow · John Chambers · the American Cribbage Congress · Fuller Systems (Cribbage Pro) · CribbageCorner.com · Cornell University · the Vashon/Wennstrom Cribbage Club · and the contributors to the r/cribbage thread cited above.

The trap patterns, the par ladder and the master tables are theirs. The engine, the models fitted to those tables, the drills, the coaching and the writing are this app's own.

Validation history — what has been checked against what, and the honest list of what has not — is kept in the project's development notes (toss-and-tally-notes-v9.md, the last of that series; the running queue since then is backlog.md).

5 · What actually differentiates this from a typical cribbage app

(Market-checked, Aug 2026: live discard expected values are not unique — Cribbage Classic surfaces "all possible expected hand values for all discard pairs," and Cribby and various web calculators do similar. So "shows discard EV" is not the differentiator; the points below are what is genuinely less common in cribbage tools.)

1. Exact crib EV against a realistic, calibrated opponent — not a random crib. Hand-EV calculators are common; the harder, rarer part is the crib. Toss & Tally enumerates crib EV over every opponent-discard-and-starter combination and weights it by a Realistic opponent model calibrated to the published master discard tables — where most tools assume a uniform/random opponent throw. Hand EV (all 46 starters) and crib EV are both exact by enumeration (no Monte-Carlo jitter), with the full 15-option ranking shown, not a single black-box pick.

2. Reasoning attached to every result, right or wrong. Most trainers only explain mistakes. This one explains correct picks too — why the optimal choice actually wins, by mechanism, every time.

3. A zero-noise exact ranking. Because both hand EV and crib EV are enumerated rather than Monte-Carlo sampled, the 15-option ranking carries no estimation jitter: two discards that are genuinely equal in value tie to the decimal instead of showing a mystifying gap, and any real difference you see (a flush, a suited crib toss) is a true edge, not sampling noise.

4. Sourced, attributed strategy content, separated from computed EV — every named pattern says where it came from and whether it's exact math or a heuristic layered on top, including when two sourced heuristics turn out to conflict (see the Jack-trap/pair-bait carve-out above) and which one wins.

5. A pegging simulator that explains its own scoring and its own statistical reasoning — every play shows which combination scored, every legal option shows its Losers and Winners counts, every finished hand gets a play-by-play review.

6. Discard and pegging practice aren't siloed — the Full-hand tab runs both on the same kept cards.

7. Real-game tracking, not just practice stats, via the Match Log.

8. Reconsidering a discard doesn't corrupt the numbers — the original attempt stays counted; most simple trainers either skip undo entirely or silently skew their own stats when it's used.

9. Verified, not just plausible, reference data. The crib-value matrix was cross-checked against Cornell's published probabilities and multiple external sources, catching a real error in at least one commonly cited external discard chart. The same instinct extends to smaller decisions — the win-warning threshold, the lead-risk weighting, and the losers-counting logic are all grounded in actual computation or verified against the book's own examples, not picked as round numbers.

10. Two opponent models, and the master tables behind them. Crib EV can assume a random opponent (a clean uniform-random enumeration, zero sampling noise) or a realistic one (the pone balks, the dealer loads). The realistic model isn't hand-waved: its throw weights are calibrated so the dealer case reproduces the published master discard tables of Craig Hessel, Bruce Bowman, and George Rasmussen — to about 0.23 points RMS against their average, roughly half the error of the random assumption. The Tables tab shows an Agreement view of exactly how well it matches them, discard by discard, alongside the app's own realistic and exact tables. Most trainers bake in a single hidden crib assumption; this one names both, lets you toggle between them, and shows how it was tuned against.

6 · Glossary

Quick definitions for the terms the trainer links inline. Throughout the app, a dotted-underline term opens a small popover with a one-line version and a "Read more in the Guide →" link that lands on the matching entry below.

Discard

The two cards you throw from your dealt six. They form the crib — yours to build when you're the dealer, the opponent's to feed when you're the pone (which is why balking matters).

Hand EV

The average points your four kept cards will score, computed exactly over all 46 possible starter cuts. Shown as the Hand column in the discard ranking.

Crib EV

The average points your two discards are worth in the crib, computed over every combination of the opponent's two crib cards and the starter. Added to your hand EV when you're the dealer, subtracted when you're the pone. Shown as the Crib column. How the opponent's two cards are modeled is set by the Opponent model (below).

Opponent model

Two ways the crib EV can treat the opponent's two crib cards. Realistic (the default) weights them by how a real opponent discards — as dealer the pone balks (hoards 5s and Jacks, dumps low/safe cards into your crib); as pone the dealer loads their own crib. Those weights are calibrated so the dealer case reproduces the published master discard tables (Hessel / Bowman / Rasmussen — see the Tables tab). Random (exact) instead assumes every unseen card is equally likely — a clean uniform-random enumeration with zero sampling noise. Switch it in the discard settings; the two differ most on 5-hungry discards (5-10, 5-K), which a random opponent over-feeds and a real pone will not.

EV

Expected value — the total a keep is worth: hand EV ± crib EV. The ranking sorts all 15 discard options by this number.

Rank (optimal)

Where your chosen discard falls among the 15 options by total EV. Rank 1 is optimal; the difference between rank 1 and your pick is the EV you left on the table.

Magic Eleven

Colvert's heuristic: four cards that can total 11 (or 21) tend to make fifteens and peg well, so they're strong to keep.

Small-Hand Rule

Our name for a common principle, not a term borrowed from a particular author: when your six cards are weak, keep the four that peg and balk safely rather than reach for a marginal count — a small, safe hand outperforms a fragile larger one.

Balk

As the pone, deliberately throwing low, disconnected cards (never a 5) into the opponent's crib to starve it of points.

Losers

Unseen cards that would let the opponent score on their immediate reply to a card you play — a defensive count; fewer is safer. This is Colvert's "counting losers" (formerly labeled "outs").

It is an exact count of cards, which is why it's worth trusting. In a 3- or 4-handed game more than one opponent plays before your next turn, so it adds up every one of them and is shown tagged field — a bigger number there means more seats can hurt you, not that your card is worse.

Winners

The opponent replies (weighted by how likely they are to hold each rank) after which one of your own remaining cards can score — an offensive, depth-2 look-ahead; more is better.

Unlike Losers, this is a weighted estimate rather than a card count, and with 3 or 4 players it stays keyed on the opponent who plays immediately before you (plus your partner's help in a 2 v 2) — which is why it barely grows when Losers does.

Reading the two together: compare each number across your own cards — fewest Losers for the safe play, most Winners for the aggressive one. Don't compare Losers against Winners; they count different things and don't share a scale.

Offense / Defense

The Street coach's read on how to play the hand: on (chase pegs and points) when you're behind par, off (protect the lead — deny fifteens, pairs, and runs) when you're ahead.

Par

The pacing concept: the score you would expect to hold by a given deal in an average game, from Colvert's Twenty-Six Theory. Behind par, press; ahead of par, protect. The specific number par resolves to for a given deal is the par-hole, below.

Sleeper

The safest opening lead — a card with no pair or run connection to the rest of your hand, so leading it reveals nothing about your structure (Colvert Tip 1).

Starter

The card cut from the deck after the discards and turned face-up. It is never played during the pegging; it acts as a shared fifth card for every hand and for the crib at the show. Also called the cut or the turn-up.

Crib

The extra hand the dealer scores at the show, built from the cards the players discard. In the two-player game each player throws 2, making a 4-card crib. It is yours to build as dealer and the opponent's to starve as pone — which is why the same two cards can be a good throw on your deal and a poor one on theirs.

Pegging (the play)

The play phase, in which players alternate cards and call the running count, scoring for 15s, 31s, pairs, runs, the go and the last card. Named for the pegs moved along the board as those points are scored.

Dealer / pone

The dealer deals the hand and owns the crib. The pone is the non-dealer, who leads the first card and counts their hand first at the show. The deal alternates, so each role comes round every other hand. Almost every strategic asymmetry in cribbage traces back to which of the two you currently are.

Ten-card

Any card worth 10 in the count — 10, Jack, Queen or King. There are 16 of them in the deck, more than any other value, which is why a ten-card lead is safer than it looks and why throwing a lone 5 is so dangerous.

Muggins

The rule that lets an opponent claim points you failed to count in your own hand. Optional in casual play and standard in ACC tournaments (Rule 10). The app implements it as a scope: Off / Hand / Pegging / Both.

The count

The running total of the cards played during pegging; it may never pass 31. Landing exactly on 31 scores 2; forcing the opponent to call "go" scores 1.

Go

Called when you can't add a card without passing 31. The last player able to lay a card takes 1 — or 2 if that card lands on 31 exactly — then the count resets for the remaining cards.

His Heels

Also called nibs: the dealer scores 2 when the starter card cut is a Jack. (Distinct from His Nobs, the 1 point for holding the Jack that matches the starter's suit.)

His Nobs

Often shortened to "nobs": 1 point for holding the Jack whose suit matches the starter. Scored in a hand or the crib at the show, never during the play. (Distinct from His Heels, the dealer's 2 points for cutting a Jack as the starter.)

Pair royal

Three of a kind, worth 6 — it contains three separate pairs. Four of a kind, a double pair royal, is worth 12.

Run

Three or more cards in consecutive rank, regardless of suit, scoring one point per card. During pegging the cards can be laid in any order as long as an unbroken sequence is present.

The show

The scoring of each hand after the play — fifteens (2 apiece), pairs, runs, flush, and His Nobs. Pone shows first, then the dealer, then the crib; that count-first order is decisive near 121.

Element sizes (the view model)

Seven things are sized independently: the text, the cards, the board, and then each boxed region on its own — the starter block, the play log, the coach panels and the Settings panel. They all scale from one base, each with its own ratio on top, so turning up the coaching you are reading does not enlarge the cards you have already got the size you want. The base is solved from your window; a ratio then scales that one element. Because nothing carries a hardcoded pixel size, the proportions hold at any window size, and raising one element does not distort the others — moving the text slider will not resize your cards.

Each slider is a ceiling, not a fixed size. It raises the cap the automatic fit is allowed to reach; the fit still has the last word, so no combination of settings can produce a layout that does not fit. Set them in Settings → Element sizes, where a live line tells you the pixel sizes your current settings produce.

Your adjustments are remembered on this device and layer over the shipped defaults. Reset genuinely forgets them rather than writing today's defaults back, so if the defaults improve later, those improvements still reach you.

Where the page sits. The app is a fixed reading column, not a full-bleed layout — the column's width is exactly what the automatic fit solves against. Page alignment in Settings puts that column on the left (the default) or centered. It only moves the column; it does not change how wide it is.

How far the sliders go. Deliberately further than the automatic fit would ever choose on its own, including below the size the auto-fit will shrink to. Asking for smaller text is a choice; the app quietly shrinking itself to unreadable is a bug — the two are held to different limits on purpose.

The automatic fit shrinks; it never inflates. It is driven by your window's width and tops out at the normal size — a wider monitor gives you more room around the page, not bigger type. If a window is too narrow for the reading column, the fit comes down to suit. Window height plays no part: most tabs here are documents meant to scroll, and forcing a long reference page onto one screen would shrink the text past readability. If you want everything larger, raise Text & panels — an explicit choice, and it is remembered.

Match scoring ruleset

Which scoring table decides what a finished game is worth, set in the Settings tab. ACC tournament (the default): a win is 2 game points, a skunk 3, a loss 0 — and because ACC recognizes no tier beyond the first, a double or triple skunk is labeled but still scores 3. Standard free play: a win is 1, a skunk 2, and a double or triple skunk 4. The choice applies to the Game, the Match Log and any best-of-N series; it does not change how the game is played, only what the result is worth. See Skunk for the margin tiers themselves.

Skunk

Winning by a wide enough margin that the loser is left short of a board landmark. Three tiers, one for each 30-hole "street" the loser failed to cross: skunk (loser ≤ 90, short of the skunk line at 91), double skunk (≤ 60) and triple skunk (≤ 30). Under ACC tournament scoring a skunk is worth 3 game points against 2 for an ordinary win and 0 for a loss; ACC recognizes no tier beyond the first, so the app labels a double or triple skunk and still scores it as 3. Casual and stakes rulesets do escalate them. See also Par-hole and Twenty-Six Theory for the pacing that tells you early whether a skunk is in play.

Par-hole

The specific board hole that par resolves to for a given deal and role: 17 · 43 · 69 · 95 as dealer, 7 · 33 · 59 · 85 · 111 as pone. It is the reference point behind the Street coach's on / behind / ahead read. See also Par and Twenty-Six Theory.

Crib-value matrix

The lookup table of average crib value for each discard pair (5-5 is the richest toss), used to rank what you feed your own crib and what you balk from the opponent's. Cross-checked against Cornell's published probabilities.

Card frequency

How often each rank tends to be held or played, used to weight the opponent's likely replies when computing the Losers and Winners counts.

Fifteens

Every distinct combination of cards that adds to exactly 15 scores 2 — a single card can take part in more than one fifteen. The Locked-in 15s line in the ranking detail is the fifteens your four kept cards already make on their own, before the starter is cut; those points are guaranteed no matter what turns up.

Pairs

Two cards of the same rank score 2. Three of a kind (a pair royal) is 6 and four of a kind is 12, because each counts every underlying pair. Locked-in pairs are the pairs already sitting in your four kept cards, before the cut.

Flush

Four cards of one suit in the hand score 4; if the starter matches that suit as well, 5. (The crib is stricter — it scores a flush only when all five cards, starter included, share a suit.) Locked-in flush means a four-card flush already complete in your kept hand, before the starter.

Crib flush

When your two discards share a suit they give the crib a head start toward its five-card flush — the only flush the crib can score. The Suit / crib-flush chance line is the small average value that same-suit toss adds; discard two different suits and a crib flush is impossible, so it reads as zero.

Best possible cut

The most your kept hand could score if the single most helpful starter were cut, shown with a count of how many of the unseen starters reach that peak. It's the ceiling on this hand's show — useful next to the floor for seeing how much the cut can swing it.

Worst cut (floor)

The least your kept hand can score across every possible starter — the guaranteed floor. It's the cut where the starter adds no points beyond what your four cards already lock in; your hand never counts less than this, whatever turns up.

Cuts that beat the floor

How many of the unseen starters would score more than the floor. A high count means most cuts help the hand (it's cut-hungry — hold out for the swing); a low count means the hand mostly stands on its locked-in points regardless of the starter.